Waterborne Disease Dynamics with a River
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.33043/c9yu5f2yznfKeywords:
Compartmental Model, Waterborne Disease, Cholera, Basic Reproductive Number, Parameter SensitivityAbstract
A wide range of waterborne diseases spread through a population through both human to-human interaction and water-to-human interaction. In this paper, we propose a deterministic compartment model to simulate the transmission of a waterborne pathogen through a population whose common water source is a river with both upstream and downstream access points. This allows for a distinction between drinking and shedding behavior with respect to the upstream and downstream water sources. We consider the effectiveness of several intervention methods with respect to two metrics: the basic reproductive number, R0, in the epidemic phase and the steady-state infected population fraction, i∞, in the endemic phase. Using both local and global sensitivity analysis techniques, the relative effectiveness of interventions are demonstrated, leading to a clearer understanding of how to prioritize efforts to either prevent an epidemic or to reduce the endemic level of disease in a population.
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Copyright (c) 2025 Chad Westphal, Jackson Leeper
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